Photo: federico-persiani / unsplash What sports are the 3-day weather forecast and 10-day weather forecast suitable for? The same goes for the weather forecast for a month. It could only be used to check weather conditions that are possible to happen in the area. So the forecast for such a long time shows the way everything could be but can’t show how everything is going to be. The period of such a weather forecast is longer than the theoretical limit of the prediction. Starting with this time any prediction has equal chances to happen or not to happen.
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14 days weather forecastĭue to physical reasons, the forecast for 14 days is the theoretical limit to predict the weather. It is similar with 3 days and 5 days forecast because it also has a length less than the mean one of cyclones and anticyclones.
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It is similar with 3 days forecast because it has a length less than the mean one of cyclones and anticyclones. Weather forecast for 5 days has approximately 80% accuracy. Remember that heavy rain is the hardest event to predict. You can trust it even in difficult conditions because most future changes in weather can be noticed at least 1 day before they happen. The forecast for 1 day is the most accurate with a success rate of about 96-98%. Photo: kay-liedl / unsplash What is the difference between other forecast durations? 1 day weather forecast Forecast for 10 days can be used only for the primal understanding of the conditions. It can be lower for mountain areas, as well. It is very important to know, understand and remember this speaking about weather forecasting. How accurate is the forecast for 10 days? It is logical to assume that the longer the forecast period, the less accurate it is. It gives the longest possible forecast but unlike the 3 days forecast it has a lower success rate and should be used cautiously. So, 10-days forecast is one of the two main periods in weather prediction, together with a 3 days weather forecast. This is where this number of the days comes from. But our methods of weather prediction are still imperfect, so the real limit is a bit lower and equals approximately 10 days. We can’t predict the weather for more than 14 days. That means that no matter what’s happening with the weather now, in 14 days the current situation can change in any direction.ġ4 days are called the “theoretical limit” of weather prediction. What’s the matter?įrom the physical laws that describe the atmosphere dynamics, meteorologists know that the atmosphere “forgets” its current state in 14 days. And it’s the longest forecast to have at least minor accuracy. This time period is long enough to plan outdoor activities even for the next weekend. Photo: courtney-kenady / unsplash 10 days weather forecastġ0 days is the usual time period of a long-range weather forecast. You should also remember that severe weather events are predicted much worse than calm weather. For example, in mountain areas, it’s much lower than on planes. But in different cases, the accuracy can vary. How exactly accurate is the forecast for 3 days? The mean value is about 90%. Of course, these are just mean values, and variability all over the world is very high. The weather conditions can be predicted with the highest accuracy in this case. And approximately 3 days is the period one particular cyclone or anticyclone influences one particular spot. That comes from synoptic meteorology: most cyclones and anticyclones live for about a week. Speaking about outdoors, this time period is long enough to plan some activities, but at the same time, it’s short enough to have high forecast accuracy.
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So let's learn what does different weather forecast durations actually mean: 3 days weather forecastģ days is the usual time period of a middle-range weather forecast. (But there is, for example, a weather history, which can also be used to predict the state of the atmosphere in the future.) There is no weather forecast in the past. The forecast is always about the time in the future. Why is the weather forecast usually made for 3 and 10 days? Then they use special computers that use those physical laws to turn past and current weather conditions into the weather forecast.
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Meteorologists use special observation stations to collect weather data all over the world. There are well-known physical laws that together can describe how the air moves and how conditions in every spot change. The most modern and accurate method to predict the weather is numeric modeling. What is the weather forecast in general?Ī weather forecast is the prediction of weather conditions that will occur in the future. You can also see forecasts for 5, 7 and 14 days. But what does these numbers actually mean? Could we trust a forecast for more than two weeks or even a month? Let's deal will all of these common durations. Weather forecasts for 3 and 10 days are the most common.